Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
