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Rising War of Words Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Triggers Fears of Armed Clash
Mounting worries are present over the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive language has escalated in recent weeks.
What Has Ethiopia Stated?
Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated verbal exchange.
The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in last year that his nation's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.
Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.
Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.
Current Statements from Ethiopia's Officials
Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted control of Eritrean southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.
Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing access to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".
Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".
Eritrea's Answer to the Threats
Despite persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on social media from Communications Head the minister.
Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.
Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".
Defense Activities on the Border
So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.
Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.
The leader of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".
Past Roots of the Dispute
For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian colonisers.
Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.
However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.
A extended civil war ensued, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a referendum in 1993.
For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in conflict in 1998.
Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries remained at in dispute.
This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two agreed to a statement that the war was over – a action that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.
The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in Tigray.
But ties have since broken down again.
Denise Alvarez
A professional gambler and strategy analyst with over a decade of experience in casino games, specializing in roulette techniques and probability theory.
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